SNL Kagan Expects HDTV Sales to Rebound in Late 2009 and Continue Strong into 2010

Despite revived sales, slashed retail prices and consumer preference for budget-priced HDTV sets could reduce revenues

MONTEREY, Calif. — According to updated projections from SNL Kagan, the market for high-definition televisions (HDTVs) is expected to pick-up in the second half of 2009 and maintain momentum into 2010. SNL Kagan projects 2009 HDTV sales will reach 29.0 million units, up from an estimated 26.2 million in 2008, as consumers react to lower average retail prices for HDTV sets and to pent-up demand.

However, consumer preference for budget, midsize displays could reduce profit margins for both manufacturers and retailers. SNL Kagan estimates 2009 HDTV retail revenues will reach $25.5 billion, down from the 2008 total of $28.4 billion.

SNL Kagan analysis shows the percentage of HDTV households growing to 71% of total TV households – roughly 82.3 million homes – in 2009, up from 16% in 2005, as more primary analog or standard digital sets are replaced in the home.

“As average HDTV set prices continue to fall to the $600-700 range by 2010-2011, we should see mass adoption begin to take hold, with over 80-90% penetration of TV households,” said SNL Kagan analyst Justin Nielson. “Looking past 2012, we project almost all TV households will have at least one HDTV. However, retail market revenues will flatten at $24 billion due to market saturation as all displays sold at the retail level will be high definition by 2017 and the average retail price drops to about $500.”

These projections were published in SNL Kagan’s Broadcast Investor feature and are available via the SNL Kagan Unlimited Information Service. For more information on SNL Kagan Unlimited, contact Sales at 866.296.3743; SNLKaganSales@snl.com.