Triple-play subscriptions to rocket to 400 million

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012
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Global triple-play subscriptions will reach 400 million by 2017; up by nearly 300 million on the end-2011 total and up by 380 million on the 2007 total, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

Covering 80 countries, the 308-page Triple-Play Forecasts report forecasts that the Asia Pacific region will contribute 257 million of the 2017 total; up by more than 200 million on the end-2011 total. China alone will have 193 million triple-play subscribers by 2017 (with only 39 million recorded at end-2011) – or 48% of the global total.

Global households by bundle (000)
Triple-play, Double-play, Standalone
Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

Simon Murray, author of the report, said: “The number of triple-play households will overtake the standalone TV total in 2013. The standalone TV total will begin to decline from 2016 as homes convert to bundles. There will be 84 million double-play subscribers in 2017.”

Murray continued: “So 61% of cable and DSL/fiber TV subscribers will pay for triple-play bundles by 2017, up from 38% in 2011 and only 21% in 2007. By way of comparison, the standalone TV proportion will fall from 63% in 2007 and 49% by end-2011 to only 27% by 2017.”

Despite rapid growth in IPTV subscriptions, cable will still contribute nearly two-thirds of triple-play subscribers by 2017. However, triple-play penetration will remain higher in DSL and fiber homes (81% by 2017) than in cable homes (54%).

This report defines triple-play as homes subscribing to TV, broadband and fixed telephony services. Double-play is TV and broadband subscribers. These are subscribers to cable and DSL & fiber networks, so the figures exclude satellite TV providers (such as BSkyB in the United Kingdom) which supply triple-play and double-play bundles.

More than a quarter of the world’s TV households (covering 80 countries) will subscribe to triple-play services by 2017. This is up from only 8% penetration at end-2011 and only 2% at end-2007.

Proportions in 2017 will be highest in the Netherlands and Belgium (both with 64%), followed by Taiwan (60%) and Singapore (59%). Eight countries will have more than 50% triple-play penetration by 2017.

Triple-play subscription revenues will reach US$149 billion by 2017. The US (US$59 billion) will account for 40% of the world’s triple-play revenues by 2017, followed by Japan (US$13 billion), China (US$12 billion) and Canada (US$10 billion). From the $93 billion to be added between 2011 and 2017, the US will supply US$32 billion, with Japan and China each up by US$10 billion.

Triple-play revenues overtook standalone TV revenues in 2010. Standalone TV revenues will start falling from 2014 as subscribers defect to bundles and as cable and DSL/fiber operators offer lower-priced packages due to greater competition from other platforms.

Top 10 triple-play countries by households (000)

2011                 2017
-------------------  --------------------
China        38,998  China        192,667
USA          20,723  USA           45,785
France        5,729  India         17,535
South Korea   4,528  Japan         13,954
Japan         3,927  Germany       11,530 
UK*           3,663  South Korea   10,202
Canada        3,265  Russia        10,094
Germany       3,265  France         7,920
Netherlands   2,327  Canada         7,171
Russia        1,670  Brazil         5,393

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd
*UK excludes Sky

Top 10 countries by triple-play revenues (US$ million)

2011                 2017
-------------------  --------------------
USA          26,955  USA           59,432 
Canada        4,629  Japan         13,368
Japan         3,289  China         11,576
France        2,814  Canada        10,125
UK*           2,603  France         4,112
China         1,725  Germany        4,041
Belgium       1,529  Brazil         3,561
Netherlands   1,265  Belgium        3,198
Spain         1,245  South Korea    3,006
South Korea   1,149  UK*            2,905

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd
*UK excludes Sky

More: Triple-Play Forecasts

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