Television ad sales to fall 1% in 2017

MAGNA Advertising Forecasts Spring Update

In its latest report on global advertising market trends, released June 14, 2017, MAGNA forecasts media owners’ net advertising sales to grow by +3.7% to $505 billion in 2017.

This is a noticeable drop compared to 2016, which reached a record +5.9% growth rate, but one that MAGNA projected in previous forecasts. The lack of cyclical events in 2017 (global sports events or U.S. elections), and the U.S. market itself, are in fact contributing the bulk of the global slowdown.

Digital media has now surpassed linear television to become the No.1 category in advertising revenues. Within digital, the majority of advertising sales (54%) is now generated by impressions and clicks on mobile devices.

Television ad sales will be down (-1%) for the first time since 2009.

U.S. advertising sales will grow by +1.6% to $185 billion, in line with previous expectations, following a record performance (+7.7%) last year. The lack of global sports events and elections in an odd-numbered year is responsible for most of the slowdown. Excluding those cyclical events, 2017 growth would be a robust +3.4%, compared to a six-year-high +5.9% last year.

Video advertising growth this year is expected to be 30%, which will bring total video advertising spend to $23 billion. While desktop video is still showing growth at +14% (unlike most other desktop formats), the engine for online video ad spend growth is mobile (+56% growth expected to bring mobile share of video spend to +45% this year). Mobile video will match desktop next year as the mobile video experience, wireless broadband penetration, and mobile video content continues to improve. By 2021, online video advertising will have passed the $50 billion mark globally, and digital video will represent more than 20% of total video viewing (TV and online video).