DTH Set-Tops: A Tale of Two Markets

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The pay direct-to-home (DTH) TV industry is characterized by two broad growth patterns: maturing markets with decaying rates and high growth/emerging markets, reports In-Stat. In mature markets, growth will come from premium services (HD and DVR/PVR), while emerging/high growth markets will experience a period of relatively robust subscriber acquisition likely followed by consolidation and a gradual decay in the growth rate, the high-tech market research firm says.

“Within mature markets, demand for set-top boxes is expected to soften, if not decline,” says Michael Inouye, In-Stat analyst. “These markets will have growth in the number of premium boxes, and to some extent, these units will bolster the market, although with subscriber churn, gross adds declining, and leasing business models, the overall demand will fall over time. Asia/Pacific has the highest growth potential in the coming years, as India expands and there is the prospect of a relatively large Chinese market.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• The growing number of premium services and related boxes are creating a favorable product mix with higher ASPs.
• DTH set-top box unit shipments in 2008 are expected to eclipse 80 million, growing to a peak of 83.5 million in 2010.

Recent In-Stat research, World Report on Digital Satellite Set-Top Boxes (#IN0804064ME), covers the worldwide market for digital satellite set-top boxes. It provides worldwide and regional forecasts for unit shipments, average selling prices, and revenue by set-top type, including DVR and HD models, through 2012. It includes extensive analysis of regional markets, standards, distribution, and technologies.