U.S. annual consumer technology growth to stay in low single digits

Tuesday, March 26th, 2019
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Annual Consumer Technology Industry Growth to Remain in the Low Single Digits Through 2021 in the U.S., According to NPD Forecast

PORT WASHINGTON, NY — The NPD Group today shared insights from its latest Future of Tech report, a three-year technology industry forecast, which predicts low single-digit sales growth in the U.S. consumer technology market through 2021. Following a return to growth in 2017, the consumer tech industry experienced a nearly 3 percent dollar sales increase in 2018, and NPD expects 2019 will see 2 percent growth with industry sales reaching more than $94 billion.

U.S Consumer Technology Industry Growth 2017-2012

According to the forecast, wireless headphones and smart home devices will be among the top growth categories through 2021, adding incremental sales of nearly $3 billion when compared to 2018. Within the wireless headphone category, the forecast predicts truly wireless headphones will see a 52 percent dollar sales increase in 2019. In the smart home category, smart entry is expected to generate 55 percent growth, as consumers increasingly embrace the convenience of keyless entry, smart doorbells, and more.

“While the consumer electronics industry continues to grow greenfield categories like smart home, the largest percent of sales will remain in the core CE categories such as PCs and TVs,” said Stephen Baker, vice president, industry analyst at NPD. “As such, the industry remains dependent on these categories to deliver positive volumes alongside the newer, high growth categories.”

Over the forecast period, TVs, PCs, and related accessories(1) are projected to account for over $4.2 billion in incremental revenue in 2021 compared to 2018. Growth in larger screen and higher resolution TVs, gaming notebooks and desktops, as well as gaming accessories will support this growth. Over the last two years 40 percent of consumers that purchased a replacement TV were most motivated by a desire for a larger screen(2). This forecast expects to see that trend continue, resulting in 75 inch and larger 4K TVs seeing the largest revenue growth of any TV segment in 2019. By 2021, sales in this segment will exceed $4 billion.

“In this forecast, the dynamism of the CE industry is evident as it consistently reinvents itself to ensure continued growth,” noted Baker. “The ability to deliver revenue increases in mature and heavily saturated segments like TVs and PCs is instrumental to this growth.”

1. Includes incremental revenue for the following categories: Total PCs, Monitors, Mice, Keyboards, TVs
2. According to the TV Ownership Trends Report from NPD Connected Intelligence