Satellite TV edges towards 200 million subs

Digital TV Research forecasts that the number of pay DTH homes will be 195 million across 73 countries by end-2016, up from 139 million at end-2010. The Satellite TV Forecasts report estimates that penetration was 10.3% of TV households at end-2010, and will reach 13.1% by 2016. India will lead the sector with 45 million pay DTH homes in 2016, followed by the US with 36 million. However, penetration will be highest in South Africa (47%) and Ireland (41%).

Top 10 pay DTH countries at end-2016:

Households (000)  Penetration (%)
----------------  ----------------
India     44,831  South Africa  47
USA       36,469  Ireland       41
UK        10,682  Malaysia      40
Brazil    10,581  UK            39
Mexico     8,159  New Zealand   39
Russia     6,665  Poland        35
France     6,121  Mexico        32
Italy      5,954  Romania       31
Poland     5,130  Norway        30
Japan      5,082  USA           30

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

The number of FTA digital DTH homes was 97 million by end-2010, with another 22 million to be added by end-2016. Penetration was 7.2% of TV households at end-2010, and will be 8.0% by 2016. FTA DTH is very popular in the Middle East and North Africa.

Top 10 countries by DTH revenues (US$ million):

                2010                  2016
--------------------  --------------------
USA           32,637  USA           34,645
UK             7,272  UK             7,836
France         3,481  Brazil         4,975
Italy          3,446  Italy          3,661
Canada         2,325  France         3,387
Brazil         1,851  India          3,219
Japan          1,681  Mexico         2,727
South Africa   1,497  Canada         2,518
Australia      1,381  Japan          2,249
Mexico         1,280  South Africa   1,957

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

Satellite TV revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2011. DTH revenues will reach US$86 billion in 2016, up from US$71 billion in 2010. DTH will command nearly half the total revenues by 2016, up from only 43% in 2006. The US will remain DTH market leader, though its share of the total will fall from 54% in 2006 to 41% in 2016. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues (US$3.1 billion) between 2010 and 2016 – more than doubling its total in the process.