TrendForce reduces TV shipment forecast to 198 million units for the yearWednesday, August 23rd, 2023
Rising TV Panel Prices and Uncertain Global Economic Projections Lead to Reduced TV Shipment Forecast at 198 Million Units for the Year, Says TrendForce
TV panel prices began to rise in February, aligning with China’s stock-up period for the 618 Shopping Festival. Moreover, with North America’s projected 3–4% TV sales growth for the year, brands have advanced their shipments to cut down on overall manufacturing costs. This approach spurred a 7.6% growth in 2Q23 TV shipments and an annual growth of 2.1%. In summary, the first half of 2023 saw global TV shipments hitting 90.4 million units, marking a 3.5% YoY decline, according to TrendForce research.
TrendForce reports that panel makers chose to maintain the surge in TV panel prices by controlling production as Q3 approached. Contrarily, brands, in their bid to sustain sales momentum, have not been able to transfer increased panel costs to consumers in the form of retail price hikes. This precarious balance has driven many brands to the brink of financial losses for Q3.
Notably, as international brands boost shipments gearing up for end-of-year celebrations, and with China’s Double 11 shopping festival stocking peaking at the end of September, an 11.9% increase in Q3 TV shipments is anticipated, amounting to 52.24 million units. Still, this falls 1.3% short of TrendForce’s previous estimates. The persistent rise in panel prices in 2H23 will compel brands to trim down on less profitable product lines.
Consequently, the annual global TV shipment forecast has been revised downward to 198 million units, a 1.5% YoY decrease.
A continuous Q3 surge in TV panel prices leads major brands to reconsider their purchasing strategies
Panel makers have harnessed production to stabilize costs and revamp their financial positions this year. Post Chinese New Year celebrations, Chinese brands escalated their TV panel procurement, resulting in a sustained price boost over recent months.
By June’s end, TV panels sized 55 inches and below attained a profit-making price threshold. The upcoming Q3 anticipates that panel sizes of 65 and 75 inches, chiefly produced on the 10.5-generation line, will also reach profitability. Prices of 50, 55, and 65-inch panels are set to surge by over 50% this year. Yet, in places like North America, retail prices for these brands have not followed suit, and in some instances have even decreased, indicating a squeeze on brands’ profit margins.
TrendForce reveals that while major TV brands are eyeing a seasonal 6.8% growth for Q3 panel purchases, it’s noticeably less than what was initially chalked out. With peak procurement for TV panels in September, Q4 projections anticipate a further 7.3% reduction. As a result, meticulous production control will remain pivotal to preserving TV panel prices in the foreseeable future.
Mid-to-High-End market demand sluggish: OLED and 8K TV shipments tumble in 2023
The global economic forecast for 2H23 remains enigmatic, with high-end project demand yet to see a revival. Sales for both OLED and 8K TVs have witnessed a widening dip. In particular, OLED TV shipments are predicted to land at 5.44 million units, marking a 19.3% YoY decrement.
LG Electronics, though steadfastly leading the OLED TV shipment race, has experienced a market share contraction to 53.6%. Samsung Electronics, in its relentless market pursuit this year, has overtaken SONY to clinch second place, forecasting around 17.1% market share. SONY, due to its intense focus on mid-to-high-tier models over the past few years, grapples with challenges across both LCD and OLED TV shipments. Its OLED TV market share is speculated to contract to 15.1%, thereby settling at third place.
8K TVs, grappling with content dearth and hefty pricing, are set to see a 25.4% YoY plunge in shipments, touching a mere 300,000 units.