The days of fast global pay TV revenue growth are over

DTH revenues to overtake cable TV this year

Based on forecasts for 97 countries, global pay TV revenues [subscription fees and on-demand movies and TV episodes] will climb to $203 billion in 2018, up by $19 billion on 2012. According to the Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts report the fast growth years for the sector are over, with annual growth hovering at below 2% from 2015. Growth in 2013 will be 3.2%.

Global pay TV revenues by platform ($ billion)

                  2012  2013  2018
                  ----  ----  ----
Analog cable TV   22.8  18.0   3.6
Digital cable TV  64.1  68.6  79.0
Pay IPTV          12.0  14.2  21.3
Pay DTH           82.9  89.9  96.7
Pay DTT            1.7   1.8   2.4

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

Satellite TV [DTH or DBS] revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2013, according to Digital TV Research. The report explains that this means that satellite TV will account for 45.9% of the total in 2013, rising to 47.6% by 2018. However, cable (both analog and digital) will drop from 45.9% in 2013 to 40.7%. Meanwhile, IPTV – the fastest growing platform – will climb from 7.5% in 2013 to 10.5% by 2018.

DTH revenues will reach $97 billion in 2018, up from $83 billion in 2012. The US will remain DTH market leader, though its share of the total will fall from 43.5% in 2012 to 38.7% in 2018. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues ($3.5 billion) between 2012 and 2018 – nearly doubling its total in the process. India will grow by $2.2 billion – with its DTH revenues climbing by 135%.

Global cable TV revenues peaked in 2012 at $86.9 billion, and will fall to $82.6 billion in 2018. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.

Total pay TV revenues will fall in 14 countries in 2013. In fact, revenues will decline for 15 countries between 2012 and 2018, although revenues will more than double in another 18 countries. Most of the fast growing nations are in Africa, with Indonesia and Vietnam notable exceptions.

The US will remain the world’s largest pay TV revenue earner by some distance. However, its revenues will fall by $5.1 billion between 2012 and 2018 as homes convert to bundles and as competition forces down prices. Cable TV revenues will drop by $8.3 billion, although DTH (up by $1.3 billion) and IPTV (up by $1.9 billion) will record growth.

On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will climb by $4.2 billion between 2012 and 2018. India will also enjoy fast growth – up by $4.0 billion over the same period. China will increase by $2.8 billion over the same period. China became the second largest pay TV revenue generator in 2012.