Insight Media Issues 3DTV ForecastTuesday, March 2nd, 2010
50M Units Expected to be Sold in 2015
Insight Media, the recognized leader in Emerging Display Technology Market Research, has issued an authoritative new report: 2010 3DTV Forecast Report: A Comprehensive Worldwide Forecast of 3D Television Unit Sales by Region and Technology. The report finds that nearly 50M 3DTVs are expected to be sold in 2015, rising from 3.3M 3DTVs in 2010.
“Insight Media has 10 analysts covering the exploding 3D market,” noted Insight Media President, Chris Chinnock. “We wanted to use the best team in the industry to produce the best 3DTV forecast to date. Our methodology is comprehensive and transparent, so readers can judge if this is indeed a quality piece of work.” Details of the methodology are available on the web site.
The forecast features Insight Media’s unique and proprietary convergence method that includes Tops-Down and Bottoms-Up approaches that are converged, reconciled, adjusted and validated to produce the final forecasts. Expected, optimistic and conservative forecasts are offered in the report.
The report provides 3DTV forecasts by region, with a technology breakdown for each region. The regions and technologies forecasted are shown below.
Regions Technologies ------- ------------ US-Canada RPTV Japan-Korea PDP China OLED Europe LCD (page flipping) India LCD (x-Pol) Rest of World (developed) LCD (Active Retarder) Rest of World (undeveloped) LCD (auto-stereoscopic)
The Tops-Down analysis includes a determination of the Total Available Market (TAM), adjustment for TVs over 30″, evaluation and selection of penetration rates to model 3DTV acceptance, and the development of intermediate, optimistic, and conservative forecasts.
The Bottoms-Up approach includes a Consumer Expectations Analysis (technology dependent and technology independent), a Price-Performance-Competitiveness analysis and a Market Development analysis.
“The intermediate forecasts produced with these approaches are compared and adjustments made for different rates of adoption by region, distribution or model availability, and other factors,” explained co-lead analyst Norbert Hildebrand. “An interactive validation loop helps insure that all results make sense and can be explained though reasonable arguments.”
“The ultimate objective of this forecast is to provide decision makers with a trustworthy forecast that can help them make business, investment and product planning decisions,” noted co-lead analyst Dale Maunu, “and I think we have achieved our goal.”
The report is available in pdf format as a company site license for $2,000.