Pay TV revenues to plunge to $150 billion

Thursday, May 28th, 2020 
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Pay TV revenues to plunge to $150 billion

Global pay TV revenues for 138 countries peaked in 2016 at $202 billion. Revenues will fall to $150 billion in 2025 – despite the number of pay TV subscribers rising by 35 million between 2019 and 2025.

Top 10 countries by pay TV revenues ($ million)

Ranking  Country      2019   Ranking  Country    2025
-------  ---------  ------   -------  -------  ------ 
1        USA        88,512   1        USA      57,423
2        China       9,929   2        China    10,062
3        UK          6,637   3        India     5,995
4        Canada      6,096   4        UK        5,789
5        Brazil      5,338   5        Canada    5,061
6        India       5,183   6        Japan     4,714
7        Japan       4,959   7        Brazil    4,233
8        France      4,108   8        France    3,479
9        Germany     3,877   9        Germany   3,382
10       Argentina   3,152   10       Mexico    2,815

Revenues will decline in 61 countries between 2019 and 2025. The US will provide the most dramatic fall – by $31 billion. Brazil and Canada will each lose more than $1 billion.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator but less on TV services. Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the US.”

On a positive note, India will gain $812 million in pay TV revenues between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to $6 billion – up by 16%. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $719 million gain.

The top five countries will account for 56% of global pay TV revenues by 2025. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 25%. Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 81% of pay TV revenues by 2025.

Satellite TV revenues will fall by $18 billion between 2019 and 2025. The US alone will decline by $14 billion. IPTV revenues will be flat between 2019 and 2025 at $27 billion. Global cable TV revenues (digital and analog together) peaked at $97 billion in 2012, but will fall to $63 billion in 2025.

Murray added: “Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid 19 lockdown. If this does not happen, then pay TV will experience considerable churn.”

Links: Digital TV Research