Disney+ to lead the next OTT boom in Western Europe

Digital TV Research forecasts 131.20 million gross SVOD subscriptions in Western Europe by 2024, doubling from 65.19 million by end-2018. About 13 million subscribers will be added in 2019 alone, with a similar number of additions expected in 2020.

Source: Digital TV Research

SVOD homes will pay for an average of 1.71 SVOD subscriptions by 2024 – up from 1.42 in 2018. About 43.4% of TV households will have at least one SVOD subscription by 2024; up from 26.3% in 2018. Penetration will reach nearly two-thirds of TV households in Norway, but will be under 30% in Italy.

Gross SVOD subscriptions will represent 74.2% of Western European TV households by 2024, double from 37.3% at end-2018. Germany, Italy, France and Spain will all be below the regional average by 2024. Five countries will be above 100% of TV households.

Netflix will remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform by some distance, with 54.86 million paying subscribers expected by 2024 – or 42% of the region’s total. This proportion is down from 54% in 2018, but it does mean that the platform will add 20 million subscribers.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Disney+ will make a strong and immediate impact, given its extensive brand recognition and impressive content line-up. We forecast 19.18 million paying subscribers by 2024 – fast approaching Amazon Prime Video.”