Telecom and pay TV revenue in New Zealand to grow at 1.5% over 2024-2029

Telecom and pay-TV services revenue in New Zealand to grow at 1.5% over 2024-2029, forecasts GlobalData

The total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in New Zealand is expected to see a marginal yet consistent increase from $3.2 billion in 2024 to $3.4 billion in 2029, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5%. This will be supported by revenue growth in the mobile data, fixed voice and fixed broadband segments, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s New Zealand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the mobile voice service revenues will decline during the forecast period, in line with the steady drop in mobile voice service ARPU, with growing consumer shift toward mobile/OTT based communication platforms for voice calling and operators offering unlimited free voice minutes with mobile service plans.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will continue to increase driven by the continued rise in mobile internet subscriptions, a robust growth in the adoption of 5G services, and an increase in mobile data ARPU over the forecast period.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G services accounted for a majority share of the overall mobile subscriptions in 2023. While 4G will remain the leading mobile technology generation, by subscriber volume through 2029, its share in total mobile subscriptions will gradually drop, as 5G service adoption increases.

“5G subscriptions are set to increase at a rapid pace over the forecast period given the continued increase in 5G service availability due to the network expansion and upgradation efforts by operators across the country. For instance, in July 2024, 2degrees announced a five-year extension to its existing joint RAN technology in partnership with Ericsson to accelerate its 5G rollout across New Zealand and modernize its network with advanced 5G infrastructure.”

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice revenue will increase marginally over the forecast period, supported by subscription gains in the VoIP segment. Fixed broadband services revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.8% over the 2024-2029 period, driven by growth in the FTTH subscriptions and fixed wireless adoption too to a certain extent.

Hrushikesh adds: “Growing demand for high-speed broadband connectivity, fiber-optic infrastructure expansions and the ongoing copper to fiber network migrations will support the growth in fiber broadband subscriptions in the country over the forecast period. For instance, Chorus plans to retire the copper network and transition to an entirely fiber-based network by 2030.

Pay-TV services revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to the continued drop in DTH subscriptions and growing user preference for OTT video alternatives such as Netflix, Disney+ Hotstar and Amazon Prime Video, as well as declining pay-TV service ARPU.

Mahananda concludes: “One New Zealand will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029, given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network developments and expansion across the country and its various affordable prepaid and postpaid plans with unlimited calls and data.”

Spark New Zealand led the fixed broadband services market and will retain its leadership through 2029, supported by its strong position in the DSL and FTTH segments.

Sky, which operates in the DTH segment, is the only player operating in the pay-TV services market. The operator continues to offer a variety of pay-TV packages that cater to diverse subscriber demands, including kids and family content, entertainment, sports, movies.