DTT boom extends beyond Europe

Covering 97 countries, the number of homes receiving DTT signals will more than double between 2013 and 2018 – by reaching 553 million, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. The Digital Terrestrial TV Forecasts report expects the number of primary DTT homes (those not subscribing to cable, IPTV or satellite TV and using DTT on their main set) will also double over the same period – to 380 million in 2018.

Therefore, 173 million homes (31% of the DTT total) will only watch DTT signals on secondary sets (in the bedroom or the kitchen, for example) by 2018; up from 64 million (30% of the DTT total) at end-2012.

More than a third of the world’s TV households will receive DTT signals by 2018; up from only 15% at end-2012. From this total, nearly a quarter will be primary DTT homes by 2018; up from a tenth in 2012.

Western Europe accounted for more than 40% the global total at end-2012. However, the region will rapidly lose market share – contributing only 19% of the total by 2018 – despite its total DTT household figure increasing by 20% to 105 million. More than half the TV households in Western Europe receive DTT signals.

Western Europe will mainly lose market share to the Asia Pacific region, which will increase from 28% of the global total in 2012 to 43% by 2018 – or from 58 million DTT homes to 240 million. Penetration of TV households will increase from 7% in 2012 to 27% by 2018.

Top 10 countries by total DTT households (000)

             2012               2018
-----------------  -----------------
USA        23,389  China     152,000
Italy      23,000  Brazil     37,011
China      20,564  USA        32,276
UK         19,633  Russia     26,197
Japan      19,572  Japan      26,021
France     16,500  Italy      24,208
Spain      13,922  UK         23,032
Russia      7,673  France     20,703
Brazil      6,953  Spain      16,367
Australia   6,740  India      15,049

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd.

Despite its low DTT penetration, the US hung on to the top slot in 2012 as the largest country by DTT households. However, the top rankings will change a lot over the next five years. China will add a staggering 132 million DTT homes by 2018 to become the largest DTT country by a considerable distance. Brazil will add 30 million to take second place, with Russia adding 19 million. India, the remaining BRIC country, will have 15 million DTT homes by 2018 from none at end-2012.

Total DTT households by standard (000)

              2012     2013     2014     2015     2016     2017     2018
           -------  -------  -------  -------  -------  -------  -------
DVB-T      129,901  153,246  175,631  201,190  223,329  246,001  266,321
ATSC        30,487   33,999   37,534   41,720   46,093   50,886   54,759
ISDB-T      28,425   41,067   46,372   52,596   59,967   67,252   73,850
DMB-T       22,286   35,128   56,791   79,053  110,623  134,244  154,034
Undecided        0      223      767    1,335    1,977    2,786    3,741

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd.
Note: Figures are at year-end

DVB-T is by far the most popular DTT standard at present; taken by 130 million homes at end-2012. This total is expected to double to 266 million by 2018. However, the China-backed DMB-T standard will rocket from 22 million homes at end-2012 to 154 million by 2018, due mainly to domestic market growth.