One in four homes to own a satellite dish by 2018

Covering 97 countries, the number of pay satellite TV (DBS or DTH) homes will reach 251 million by 2018, up from 178 million at end-2012 and 103 million at end-2008, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

Global satellite TV forecasts

                                               2012     2013     2014     2015     2016     2017     2018
                                            -------  -------  -------  -------  -------  -------  -------
TV households (mil.)                        1,438.9  1,461.6  1,484.4  1,507.6  1,531.3  1,555.5  1,580.2
Pay digital DTH subs (mil.)                   178.5    195.1    209.6    222.1    232.8    242.2    251.2
Digital free-to-air DTH households (mil.)     118.0    123.1    127.1    131.1    134.9    138.9    142.6
                       
Pay DTH/TV HH                                 12.4%    13.3%    14.1%    14.7%    15.2%    15.6%    15.9%
Free-to-air DTH/TV HH                          8.2%     8.4%     8.6%     8.7%     8.8%     8.9%     9.0%
                      
DTH revenues ($ mil.)                        82,870   86,869   90,045   92,42 5  94,165   95,456   96,669

Source: digital TV research Ltd.

From the 73 million pay satellite TV subscribers added between 2012 and 2018, India will provide 24.4 million, Brazil 9.2 million, Indonesia 6.8 million and Russia 5.9 million. However, the Global Satellite TV Forecasts report estimates that pay satellite TV subscriber totals will fall in 11 countries between 2012 and 2013 as subs convert to other platforms.

Top five pay satellite TV countries by subscribers (000)

           2012                2018
         ------              ------
India    36,728  India       61,138
USA      34,140  USA         36,621
Russia   10,793  Brazil      19,044
Brazil    9,844  Russia      16,661
UK        9,603  Indonesia   12,064

Source: digital TV research Ltd.

India will lead the pay satellite TV sector with 61.1 million subscribers in 2018, followed by the US. India overtook the US in 2012 to take top slot. Brazil and Russia will take third and fourth places respectively.

The US will remain DTH market leader by revenues generated, although its share of the total will fall from 43.5% in 2012 to 38.7% in 2018. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues ($3.5 billion) between 2012 and 2018 – nearly doubling its total in the process.

However, satellite TV revenues will decline for 20 countries between 2012 and 2018. Much of this is due to greater competition forcing satellite TV platforms to offer cheaper packages which will lead to lower ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost DTH packages are making a significant impact in several countries.

Including free-to-air households, nearly 400 million homes will directly receive TV signals via satellite dishes by 2018, up by almost 100 million on the end-2012 figure. India will be responsible for adding 30 million over this period. A quarter of global TV households will have a satellite TV dish by 2018, up from 21% in 2012 and 14% in 2008.