Global pay TV revenues to peak in 2018

Wednesday, April 27th, 2016 
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Asia Pacific boosts pay TV revenues

Global pay TV revenues [subscription fees and PPV movies and TV episodes] for 138 countries will only grow by $99 million between 2015 and 2021 to $205.92 billion; having peaked in 2018. This follows 19.5% growth between 2010 and 2015, according to the Digital TV Revenue Forecasts report.

Global Pay TV revenues by region
Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

North American pay TV revenues will fall by $13.5 billion between 2015 and 2021. Cord-cutting is responsible for some of this loss, but greater competition and conversion to bundles (with the lower revenues for TV than standalone offers) are more pressing factors. Western Europe will be flat at $31 billion.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Most of the rest of the world will not follow the North American experience. True, pay TV revenues will fall in 27 countries between 2015 and 2021, but not to the same extent as in Canada and the US. Most countries are nowhere near the market maturity achieved in North America.”

Excluding North America, pay TV revenues will climb by $13.6 billion (up by 14%) between 2015 and 2021 to $107.82 billion, having recorded $20 billion growth (up by 28%) between 2010 and 2015. North America’s share of the global total will fall from 57.4% in 2010 to 54.2% in 2015 and 47.6% in 2021.

Asia Pacific revenues will grow by $8 billion (up by 25%) between 2015 and 2021 to $40 billion. Asia Pacific overtook Western Europe in 2014, and will be larger than the whole of Europe by 2019.

Revenues will rocket by 63% (up by $2.5 billion) in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and by 26% (up by $1.0 billion) in Middle East & North Africa between 2015 and 2021. Sub-Saharan Africa will pass MENA in 2016.

Pay TV revenues in Eastern Europe will be 40% higher in 2021 ($5,970 million) than in 2010 ($4,271 million). However, the revenue increase will only be 9.9% between 2015 and 2021. Latin America will add a further $1.6 billion (up by only 9.1%) between 2015 and 2021.

Revenues will decline for 27 countries between 2015 and 2021. However, revenues will more than double for a further 19 countries during that period. Most of the fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos, Oman and Bangladesh providing exceptions. India’s revenues will climb by $3.5 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $7.8 million, with China up by $1.9 billion to $11.7 billion.