Netflix to reach 201 million subscribers by 2023

Wednesday, May 16th, 2018
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Digital TV Research forecasts that Netflix will have 201 million streaming subscribers by 2023, up by 82% from 111 million at end-2017. About 28 million subscribers will be added in 2018 – making it the largest growth year ever. Lower growth is expected after 2018, according to the Netflix Forecasts report.

Netflix subscriber forecasts by region - North America, Latin America, Africa, MENA, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, Others
Source: Digital TV Research

North America and Western Europe will together supply 62% of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023 – still dominant, but down from 76% in 2017. Asia Pacific will boast fast growth by taking 14% of the 2023 total. This represents 28 million subs; quadruple the 2017 figure.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report. Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated the fast take-up in international markets.”

Split of Netflix subscriber forecasts by country in 2023 - USA, UK, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Mexico, India, France, Others
Source: Digital TV Research

The top five countries will supply 53% of Netflix’s subs by 2023; down from 69% in 2017. Although the number of international subs overtook US ones in 2017, the US will still contribute 44% of subscribers by 2023 – and will add 16 million subs between 2017 and 2023.

Streaming subscription revenues for Netflix will climb by 155% from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The top five countries will generate revenues of $16 billion in 2023 – or 56% of Netflix’s global subscription revenues. The US will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.